April 10, 2026 — Full Daily Snapshot
Nickel Steadies Near $17,070 as CPI Data and Geopolitical Signals Weigh
LME nickel settled at $17,070, while SHFE pulled back to 133,210 yuan/mt. China's deflationary CPI print and stalled Iran peace talks offset ongoing Indonesian supply tightness.
Exchange Prices
LME
$17,070
+0.26%
Cash Settlement · April 10
3-Month
$17,200
Contango
$130
Apr Avg
$17,017
YoY (Apr avg)
+11.9%
SHFE
¥133,210
-0.72%
Ni2605 (most-traded) · April 10
Apr 9 Close
¥133,000
Core Range
¥133–143K
Day Change
-0.72%
Apr 9 Change
-0.02%
Warehouse Stocks
| Exchange | Stocks | Change |
|---|---|---|
| LME Registered | 281,670 t | +360 t |
| SHFE On Warrant | 61,457 t | +511 t |
| Combined (Registered) | 343,127 t | +871 t |
SHFE on-warrant stocks by region
| Region | Stocks (t) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai | 42,734 | +588 |
| Jiangsu | 14,613 | -77 |
| Zhejiang | 4,110 | 0 |
| Context | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| LME Apr Avg | 281,475 t | vs Mar avg 284,711 t |
| LME YoY (Apr avg) | 281,475 t | +78,946 t vs Apr '25 avg 202,529 t |
Sources: Westmetall, SHFE, LME
Spot Market (China)
| Metric | April 10 | vs Prev Day |
|---|---|---|
| SMM #1 Refined Nickel | +200 yuan/mt | Rose |
| Jinchuan #1 Premium | 3,350 yuan/mt | Flat |
| Electrodeposited Brands | -400 to +400 yuan/mt | Range |
| Nickel Sulfate (China) | ~$3,390 /t | +0.6% MoM |
2026 Surplus Est.
~256,000 t
Sumitomo Metal Mining
Indonesia RKAB Quota
260–270 Mt
vs 379 Mt in 2025
Actual Prod. Est.
~209 Mt
Below quota (ESDM)
PH Ore to Indonesia
~30 Mt
2026 est. (vs 15 Mt '25)
Macro and Geopolitics
China March CPI: -0.7% MoM, +1.0% YoY
NBS data showed consumer demand pulled back seasonally after the extended Chinese New Year holiday. The deflationary monthly print adds to downside pressure on industrial metals sentiment, though the year-on-year gain remains positive.
Source: SMM / NBS · April 10, 2026
Iran–US peace talks stall over Lebanon ceasefire demand
Iran informed Pakistan that its delegation would not participate in peace talks with the US until a ceasefire was achieved in Lebanon. This followed April 9 signals that the Iranian delegation would head to Islamabad. The uncertainty reversed some of the risk-on sentiment from the April 7–8 ceasefire agreement.
Source: SMM · April 10, 2026
US Fed March minutes mention possible rate hikes
More FOMC officials mentioned the possibility of rate hikes. The Fed's "mouthpiece" noted that the ceasefire made it harder for the Fed to decide on policy direction. A hawkish tilt tends to strengthen the dollar and weigh on dollar-denominated commodities like nickel.
Source: SMM · April 9, 2026
Trump: 50% tariffs on any country arming Iran
On April 8, US President Trump posted that any country providing military weapons to Iran would face "immediate 50% tariffs" on all goods sold to the US, with "no exclusions or exemptions." The announcement adds to trade policy uncertainty across commodity markets.
Source: SMM · April 8, 2026
Supply
Indonesia's actual 2026 production estimated well below quota
Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) estimates actual nickel ore production in 2026 will reach approximately 209 million tonnes — well below the RKAB quota of 260–270 million tonnes (itself a cut from 379 Mt in 2025). Processing capacity utilization is dropping to 70–75% from ~90%, creating a structural ore gap of 70–80 Mt even with the lower quota.
Source: Mysteel Global · March 2026
Eramet quota slashed from 42 Mt to 12 Mt
Indonesia cut Eramet's ore quota from 42 million to 12 million tons. This 30 million ton reduction translates to approximately 300,000 tons of nickel — roughly 10% of global supply — signaling aggressive supply management by the Indonesian government.
Source: Crux Investor · February 25, 2026
Philippine nickel ore exports to Indonesia may double to 30 Mt
Philippine nickel ore exports to Indonesia are projected to reach nearly 30 million wet metric tons in 2026, up from ~15 Mt in 2025 and ~10.5 Mt in 2024. Even with doubled imports, a supply gap remains: Indonesia's smelters need ~350 Mt, RKAB quota provides 260 Mt, plus 30 Mt from Philippines = 290 Mt total, leaving ~60 Mt unaccounted for. Spot premiums at $28–32/wmt.
Source: Vincent Liao / LinkedIn · February 12, 2026
Nickel Industries receives 14.3 Mt RKAB approval
Nickel Industries received approval for 14.3 million wet metric tonnes of 2026 nickel ore sales in Indonesia, providing clarity for both domestic and export supply. The company has produced nearly 20,000 metric tons of nickel so far in 2026, up approximately 10% year-on-year.
Source: Trading Economics
Western Australia offers A$15M in interest-free loans to nickel miners
The Western Australian Government allocated A$15 million for interest-free loans to help the state's nickel miners resume operations. Loans will be repayment-free until July 2028 or until nickel prices exceed US$22,000/t for two consecutive quarters. The initiative aims to support domestic production capacity as a counterweight to Indonesian dominance.
Source: S&P Global · April 2, 2026
Nickel ore portside prices at Lanshan port updated
Mysteel published updated nickel ore portside prices at Lanshan port on April 10. Philippine seasonal supply drop lifted FOB prices for 1.4% ore above US$50/wmt and CIF offers above US$60/wmt. Indonesian spot premiums remain at US$28–32/wmt due to precautionary stockpiling.
Source: Mysteel Global · April 10, 2026
Demand
Global nickel demand forecast at 3.52 Mt in 2026
Sumitomo Metal Mining forecasts global nickel demand to grow 2.4% YoY to 3.52 million tons in 2026, while supply rises 2.0% to 3.78 Mt — keeping the market in surplus (~256,000 t) for a third consecutive year. Demand growth driven by stainless steel; battery demand growth stays modest at 470,000 t (up only 10,000 t from 2025) as LFP batteries gain share.
Chinese steel demand expected to shrink to 837 Mt
S&P Global predicts Chinese steel demand will fall to 837 million MT in 2026 (from 860 Mt last year). Stainless steel production — accounting for ~70% of nickel demand — remains ample but end-user demand is weak. The real estate sector continues to face pressure despite government stimulus measures.
Source: Investing News Network · March 2026
Battery-grade nickel sulfate market grows to $6.51B
The nickel sulfate for EV battery market expanded from USD 6.13 billion in 2025 to USD 6.51 billion in 2026, with a projected CAGR of 6.72% to reach $9.67 billion by 2032. Battery applications now account for 13–15% of total nickel demand. However, LFP batteries (cheaper, no nickel/cobalt) now represent two-thirds of EV sales in China, limiting nickel-rich battery growth.
Source: CarbonCredits.com
Market Outlook and Analyst Views
Prices stabilize in $17,000–$17,400 range
Nickel futures stabilized in the $17,000–$17,400 range as markets adjusted to Indonesia's tighter quotas. Gains remain capped by elevated global inventories (LME stocks above 281,000 t) and a projected market surplus. The market remains policy-sensitive rather than demand-driven. Indonesia's policy tightening and cost support have built a solid floor, but high inventory and weak end-use demand cap upside.
Source: Trading Economics, SMM
Analyst price forecasts for 2026
World Bank: ~$15,500/t. BMI (Fitch): $15,800. Goldman Sachs: $17,200. S&P Global: $17,146 (LME 3M avg). Trading Economics: $17,480 by end of Q2, $18,558 in 12 months. ING Group projects a surplus of ~261,000 t, limiting upside. The consensus range of $15,000–$17,500 reflects supply tightness from Indonesia offset by persistent surplus conditions.
Indonesia may impose windfall tax on nickel
Market participants remain cautious over potential windfall taxes on nickel in Indonesia, which could further affect output and raise production costs. No formal announcement yet, but speculation persists.
Source: Trading Economics
LME Week at a Glance
| Date | Cash | 3-Month | Stock (t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10 | $17,070 | $17,200 | 281,670 |
| Apr 9 | $17,025 | $17,205 | 281,310 |
| Apr 8 | $17,200 | $17,355 | 281,358 |
| Apr 7 | $16,840 | $17,050 | 281,496 |
| Apr 2 | $16,900 | $17,060 | 281,496 |
| Apr 1 | $17,065 | $17,250 | 281,520 |
Source: Westmetall
SHFE Daily Recap (Ni2605)
| Date | Close (yuan/mt) | Change | Market Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10 | 133,210 | -0.72% | Surged then pulled back |
| Apr 9 | 133,000 | -0.02% | Opened higher, drifted down |
Source: SMM
Also Today
Nickel ore ocean freight updated (April 10)
FerroAlloyNet published updated ocean freight rates for nickel ore on April 10, including routes from Zambales (Philippines) to Lianyungang (China). Freight costs are a key component of landed ore prices for Chinese smelters.
Source: FerroAlloyNet · April 10, 2026
Mysteel: weekly nickel ore port inventory survey (April 10)
Mysteel released its weekly survey of nickel ore inventory at 14 Chinese ports. Port inventories have been declining as ore supply tightens due to Indonesian quota cuts and Philippine wet-season effects. The full survey is available via Mysteel subscription.
Source: Mysteel Global · April 10, 2026
Mysteel: China daily nickel sulfate price & cost surveys (April 9–10)
Mysteel published daily surveys on China's nickel sulfate market price (April 9) and production cost (April 10). These track battery-grade nickel sulfate pricing used in EV cathode manufacturing. The average China price remains around $3,390/t according to Intratec.
Sources: Mysteel (price), Mysteel (cost)
China's Supply Chain Security Regulations take effect
Premier Li Qiang signed the "Regulations of the State Council on Industry Chain and Supply Chain Security," effective immediately. The regulations aim to prevent supply chain security risks and enhance resilience — relevant for nickel as a strategic metal in battery and stainless steel supply chains.
Source: SMM · April 8, 2026
Disclaimer. This digest is compiled from publicly available sources for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity or financial instrument. TrueSource Metals makes no warranties regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented. Always consult qualified professionals before making investment decisions.