Alphabetical by organisation name.
Last updated: 2026-07-09
The Fraser Institute Survey and Its Rivals — How Mining Country-Risk Rankings Actually Work
No single body regulates or certifies “mining country risk” — instead, a handful of
competing indices, each with a different methodology, weighting scheme, and constituency of respondents,
shape where exploration capital flows. The Fraser Institute's annual survey of working mining
executives has become the de facto industry benchmark, but Behre Dolbear's pure political-risk score, the
PRS Group's ICRG composite, and Fitch Solutions' quantitative Risk/Reward Index all answer a slightly
different question, and 2025–2026 rankings show real divergence on names like Mali, China, and
Botswana.
1. Fraser Institute's Investment Attractiveness Index: 60% geology, 40% policy
The Fraser Institute's Annual Survey of Mining Companies, now in its 27th edition, is
built from primary survey data rather than desk research: the 2025 edition was circulated to
approximately 2,304 mining and exploration executives between 5 August and 26
November 2025, drawing 256 responses from companies that reported combined
exploration spending of US$4.2 billion in 2025, and was published on
26 February 2026 covering 68 qualifying jurisdictions
(Fraser Institute, Annual Survey of Mining Companies 2025).
The headline Investment Attractiveness Index (IAI) combines two sub-indices: the
Best Practices Mineral Potential Index, which rates a jurisdiction's geologic
attractiveness assuming an ideal policy environment, weighted at roughly 60%, and the
Policy Perception Index (PPI), a composite “report card” on 15 policy factors
— regulatory uncertainty, environmental rules, taxation, political stability, infrastructure, labor
regulation, security, and geological database quality — weighted at roughly 40%,
with the exact split (58.3%/41.8% in the 2025 edition) recalculated each year from a survey question asking
respondents to weigh the two factors themselves
(Fraser Institute, Annual Survey of Mining Companies 2025).
A jurisdiction needs a minimum of five responses to be ranked at all, a threshold that determined which 68
of the surveyed regions qualified in 2025
(Canadian Mining Report, Top 50 Mining Jurisdictions in the World).
2. Behre Dolbear: a pure political-risk score with no geology component
Behre Dolbear, a mining-industry advisory and engineering firm, has compiled its own
country ranking since 1999 using a fundamentally different design philosophy: geology and mineral
potential are explicitly excluded, and the ranking is qualitative rather than
quantitative, drawing on the firm's own operating experience across more than 50 countries each
year, confidential corporate sources, and reference material from the Wall Street Journal/Heritage
Foundation Index of Economic Freedom and Transparency International
(Behre Dolbear, Ranking of Countries for Mining Investment).
The survey scores 25 countries across seven weighted criteria — economic system, political system,
social issues affecting mining, permitting delays, corruption, currency stability, and tax regime —
each rated 1 to 10, for a maximum composite score of 70 points
(Behre Dolbear, Ranking of Countries for Mining Investment).
Historically, Behre Dolbear's top tier has consistently clustered around Canada, Australia, the
United States, Chile, and Mexico, while the bottom has clustered around Russia, the
Democratic Republic of Congo, Bolivia, and Papua New Guinea, with Venezuela and Zimbabwe excluded
entirely in some editions because the firm judged their risk too extreme to be meaningfully scored
(Mining.com, Canada, Australia, US, Chile and Mexico, the Top Destinations for Mining Investors).
A recurring finding across Behre Dolbear editions is that the United States has repeatedly tied for
the worst permitting-delay score in the world, alongside Papua New Guinea, reflecting 7-to-10-year
federal permitting timelines even as the US scores near the top on economic system, political system, and
anti-corruption criteria
(Mining Engineering Online (SME), U.S. Tied for Having Worst Permitting Process — Again).
3. PRS Group's ICRG and Fitch Solutions' Mining Risk/Reward Index: composite quantitative models
The PRS Group's International Country Risk Guide (ICRG), published monthly since 1984,
takes a third approach: a 32-variable composite spanning political risk (12 weighted
components on a 100-point scale), financial risk (five components, 50 points), and economic risk (five
components, 50 points), combined via the formula CPFER = 0.5 × (PR + FR + ER) into a
single composite score from 0 to 100, with bands from “Very Low Risk” (80–100) to
“Very High Risk” (0–49.9)
(PRS Group, The ICRG Methodology).
Unlike Fraser or Behre Dolbear, ICRG is not mining-specific — it is a general sovereign risk model
licensed across finance, insurance, and corporate treasury functions, with mining investors typically
overlaying it on top of a commodity-specific index. That commodity-specific niche is filled by Fitch
Solutions' (BMI) Mining Risk/Reward Index, covering 62 markets and deliberately
overweighting “Rewards” (60% of the final score, versus 40% for “Risks”) on the
premise that industry size and growth potential matter most to long-run investment decisions even in
higher-risk frontier markets; the Risks half of the score blends BMI's own Long-Term and Short-Term
Economic Risk Indices, a Political Risk Index (averaging Governance, Society, and Security Risk pillars),
and an Operational Risk Index covering labor markets, trade and investment, logistics, and crime and
security
(Fitch Solutions (BMI), Mining Risk/Reward Index Methodology).
S&P Global Market Intelligence occupies adjacent territory with country-level risk scores covering
211 countries and territories across six aggregate and 22 sub-aggregate risk categories on
a 12-month forward-looking, relative 0–100 scale, feeding directly into S&P Global Ratings' corporate
methodology for mining and metals issuers, where country risk is assessed by mapping a company's fixed-asset
and EBITDA location against the sovereign score
(S&P Global Marketplace, Country Risk Dataset;
S&P Global Ratings, Key Credit Factors for the Metals and Mining Upstream Industry).
Current status (July 2026):
Four materially different index families — Fraser's survey-based geology-plus-policy composite,
Behre Dolbear's pure political-risk score, PRS Group's general-purpose ICRG, and Fitch Solutions'/S&P's
quantitative reward-weighted models — continue to coexist without convergence on a single standard.
Watch: whether Fraser's 2026 survey (due Q1 2027) shows continued volatility in mid-table
jurisdictions, and whether academic critiques of small per-jurisdiction sample sizes prompt methodology
changes.
Last updated: 2026-07-09
Top Five vs. Bottom Five, 2024–2026 — Who Is Rising and Who Is Falling
Nevada has now topped or podium-finished the Fraser Institute's global ranking for three
consecutive years, while China fell to dead last in 2025 — a reversal of fortune that says as much
about tightening Chinese mineral policy perception as about improving North American competitiveness.
1. The 2025 survey (published February 2026): Nevada reclaims the top spot
On the Investment Attractiveness Index for the 2025 survey year, the top five jurisdictions
globally were Nevada, Ontario, Saskatchewan, South Australia, and Arizona, with Nevada
moving up from second place in 2024 on the strength of a perfect 100-point Policy Perception Index
score — up from 4th place on policy the prior year — combined with a 4th-place mineral
potential ranking
(Mining Connection, Nevada Claims Top Spot in Fraser Institute's 2025 Global Mining Survey).
Ontario's jump from 15th place in 2024 to 2nd in 2025 was the single largest move in the top tier, and
Saskatchewan's rise from 7th to 3rd gave Canada two of the top three jurisdictions worldwide
(Nasdaq, Ontario Ranks Second Globally, Overtakes Saskatchewan in New Fraser Mining Survey).
Rounding out the top ten were Western Australia, Botswana, Norway, Sweden, and, notably, Saudi
Arabia at 10th — the only Asian jurisdiction in the top ten and a 13-place jump from 23rd in
2024, driven by a 19.8% year-on-year improvement in its Policy Perception Index score
(Argaam, Saudi Arabia Moves Up to 10th Globally on Mining Investment Attractiveness).
At the bottom, China ranked dead last at 68th on both the overall IAI and the Policy
Perception Index alone, with Burkina Faso, Egypt, the Philippines, and Mali filling out
the remainder of the bottom five
(Canadian Mining Report, Top 50 Mining Jurisdictions in the World).
2. The 2024 survey (published mid-2025): Finland's turn at the top
One year earlier, the 2024 survey (based on 350 company responses across 82 jurisdictions) had produced a
different leaderboard: Finland ranked first — up from 17th in 2023 — followed
by Nevada (2nd, its second consecutive top-two finish), Alaska (3rd, up from 11th), Wyoming, and
Arizona rounding out the top five
(Fraser Institute (via Tsodilo Resources), Annual Survey of Mining Companies 2024);
(PR Newswire, Finland Tops Annual Global Mining Survey Rankings, Ethiopia Ranks Last).
The bottom five in 2024 were Ethiopia (last), Suriname, Niger, Nova Scotia, and Mozambique,
with the Republic of Ireland topping the Policy Perception Index alone that year on a perfect 100 score
after ranking just 15th on policy in 2023
(Fraser Institute, Annual Survey of Mining Companies 2024).
The year-over-year contrast between Finland's 2024 top ranking and its absence from the 2025 top five (while
still scoring well on policy) illustrates how sensitive these composite rankings are to relatively modest
shifts in respondent sentiment given the small number of survey responses per jurisdiction — a
methodological limitation the Fraser Institute itself partially addresses through the five-response minimum
threshold but does not eliminate.
3. Cross-index divergence: Behre Dolbear vs. Fraser vs. BMI on Africa and Latin America
Because Behre Dolbear excludes geology and Fraser blends it in at 60% weight, the two indices frequently
diverge sharply on resource-rich but policy-challenged jurisdictions. Botswana is the
clearest example of convergence: it ranked 2nd globally on Fraser's 2025 Policy Perception Index (up from
14th in 2024) and has historically scored well on Behre Dolbear's political-risk-only criteria too, making
it one of the few African jurisdictions both methodologies treat as genuinely low-risk
(Fraser Institute, Annual Survey of Mining Companies 2025).
Mali, Burkina Faso, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, by contrast, consistently anchor
the bottom of both Fraser's Policy Perception Index and Behre Dolbear's composite score, reflecting a rare
point of methodological agreement despite the different scoring philosophies
(Canadian Mining Report, Top 50 Mining Jurisdictions in the World).
Fitch Solutions' Mining Risk/Reward Index, by deliberately overweighting Rewards (60%) over Risks (40%),
produces yet a third pattern: frontier markets with poor governance scores but very large untapped reserves
— the kind of profile common across parts of West and Central Africa — can score more
favorably on the BMI index than on Fraser's Policy Perception Index alone, precisely because BMI's
methodology is explicitly designed to surface opportunity in markets where “regulatory frameworks are
not as developed”
(Fitch Solutions (BMI), Mining Risk/Reward Index Methodology).
Current status (July 2026):
Nevada, Ontario, and Saskatchewan hold the top three positions on Fraser's most recent (2025) Investment
Attractiveness Index; China, Burkina Faso, and Egypt anchor the bottom. Watch: Saudi
Arabia's continued climb (23rd in 2024 to 10th in 2025) as a bellwether for Gulf mining-policy
liberalization, and whether the 2026 survey (expected Q1 2027) shows Finland or another European
jurisdiction reclaiming a top-five slot.
Last updated: 2026-07-09
Why the Rankings Matter — Capital Allocation, Insurance Pricing, and the Limits of the Data
These indices are not academic exercises — they directly influence where US$4.2 billion-plus
in annual exploration spending gets allocated and how mining-specific insurers price political and
operational risk. But every methodology carries structural limitations that sophisticated users
must factor in, from small per-jurisdiction sample sizes to the near-total absence of a mining-specific
component in general sovereign risk models.
1. Insurance and underwriting: risk differentiation over formal scoring
Mining-focused insurers apply country risk information differently than equity investors do. Berkshire
Hathaway Specialty Insurance's mining underwriting practice, for example, explicitly avoids a formal
published risk index in favor of jurisdiction-specific legal-predictability analysis, arguing that
“jurisdictional issues are more important than considerations around the regional mining industry
itself” because claims-paying certainty depends on how predictably a given legal system applies
insurance-contract terms, not on a jurisdiction's abstract political-risk score
(WTW Mining Risk Review 2023, interview with Matthew Gooda, Berkshire Hathaway Specialty Insurance).
The same review notes that mandatory mine-closure periods in certain jurisdictions materially affect
business-interruption exposure calculations, and that aggregation risk — whether multiple insured
assets in one region face correlated loss potential — is assessed separately from any single-country
risk score
(WTW Mining Risk Review 2023).
This underscores a broader pattern: insurers and reinsurers treat country-risk indices as one input among
several, layering proprietary claims data (in BHSI's case, a historical loss dataset exceeding
US$7 billion, in which business interruption accounts for roughly 70% of losses despite
being a minority of insured value) on top of published rankings rather than underwriting directly off them.
2. Corporate credit ratings: country risk as a direct rating input
S&P Global Ratings treats country risk as a formal, weighted input into every mining and metals
corporate credit rating, mapping a company's fixed-asset locations and EBITDA generation against its
sovereign country-risk assessment, which itself spans “the broad range of economic, institutional,
financial market, and legal risks that arise from doing business in a specific country”
(S&P Global Ratings, Key Credit Factors for the Metals and Mining Upstream Industry).
Within S&P's broader corporate methodology, mining is classified as a “moderately
high-risk” industry (category 4) based on high cyclicality and intermediate competitive risk,
and a company's competitive-position score weights operating efficiency at 50%, scale/scope/diversity at
35%, and competitive advantage at 15% for the “Commodity Focus/Cost Driven” profile assigned to
most rated miners
(S&P Global Ratings, Key Credit Factors for the Metals and Mining Upstream Industry).
This is a materially different use case than the Fraser Institute or Behre Dolbear surveys, which inform
exploration and greenfield-investment decisions; S&P's country-risk overlay instead directly moves
bond and loan pricing for existing producers, making it arguably the ranking family with the most direct
and immediate capital-markets consequence.
3. Methodological limitations: small samples, subjective political scoring, and index proliferation
All of these indices share structural weaknesses that sophisticated users of the data explicitly flag.
Fraser's minimum five-response threshold per jurisdiction means some ranked regions rest on a very small
number of survey answers, which can produce the kind of large year-over-year swings seen with Ontario
(15th to 2nd) and Saskatchewan (7th to 3rd) in a single cycle
(Nasdaq, Ontario Ranks Second Globally, Overtakes Saskatchewan in New Fraser Mining Survey).
PRS Group's ICRG explicitly separates its risk assessment into components rated on subjective
analysis (political risk, based on qualitative expert judgment) versus objective
data (financial and economic risk, based on measurable indicators), a transparency about
methodology that is itself somewhat rare in the space
(PRS Group, International Country Risk Guide Methodology).
Behre Dolbear's own report acknowledges its rankings are “qualitative, not quantitative,”
drawing on the firm's institutional experience rather than a reproducible statistical model
(Behre Dolbear, Ranking of Countries for Mining Investment).
The practical effect of this proliferation of differently-weighted, differently-sourced indices is that no
single number functions as an industry-wide consensus score — capital allocators, insurers, and
rating agencies each default to whichever index's methodology most closely matches their specific decision
(exploration siting, claims underwriting, or credit spread), and cross-referencing multiple indices remains
standard due-diligence practice rather than a sign of any one index's inadequacy.
Current status (July 2026):
Fraser's 2025 survey (published February 2026) and its 2024 predecessor collectively show the North
American/Australian/Nordic bloc dominating the top of the Investment Attractiveness Index, while China's
fall to last place and continued weak scores across Mali, Burkina Faso, and the DRC define the bottom
across virtually every methodology. Watch: whether Saudi Arabia's rapid climb continues in
the 2026 survey cycle, and whether any index family moves toward greater methodological transparency in
response to persistent small-sample critiques.